Bachelor
2026/2027
Decision Making by Public Administration under Risk and Uncertainty
Type:
Elective course (Public Administration)
Delivered by:
Department of Mathematics
Where:
Faculty of Economic Sciences
When:
4 year, 1 module
Open to:
students of all HSE University campuses
Language:
English
ECTS credits:
3
Contact hours:
32
Course Syllabus
Abstract
Increasing turbulence in international relations growing resource constraints, accelerating adverse cimate change and environmental degradation, and a higher probability of emergtncies necessitate the use of special methods to justify management decisions under condition of risk uncertaintly.
Futhermore, an increasing number of public administration tasks fall into the realm of deep uncertaintly and high risk. Such kind of tasks will be considered during this course.
Making managerial decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty involves solving the following applied problems: analyzing and assessing the consequences of decisions, a multi-criteria approach to assessing the consequences of events, using a scenario approach for decision-making under deep uncertainty, and applying the concept of network analysis to solve public policy problems.
Through this course, students will develop practical skills and analytical tools needed to make sound, evidence-based decisions in unpredictable and high-stakes environments. The knowledge and practical tools gained in this course can be directly applied to writing bachelor thesis and will prove valuable in any future courses or professional activities related to management, strategic planning, and decision-making.
Learning Objectives
- to master analytical models and methods including systemic, scenario, and network analysis for decision-making under risk and uncertainty
- to develop practical skills for assessing consequences, applying multi-criteria approaches, and using scenario planning in complex public administration contexts
- to build competence in justifying and making sound managerial decisions in high-risk and deeply uncertain environments, supported by real-world cases from state and municipal governance
Expected Learning Outcomes
- Ability to build necessary theory, argumentation and practice of using Foresight and Strategic planning at the national, regional and corporate levels
- Define risk and uncertainty. List main micro-level risks (commercial, market, operational risks), describe them. Explain decision making under uncertainty. Describe diversifiable (idiosyncratic) and non-diversifiable (systematic) risks. Explain risk and return tradeoff.
- Apply classical decision-making criteria (Wald, Savage, Hurwicz, Germeier, maximax, and pessimism) to solve government and municipal management problems under risk and partial uncertainty
- Compare the results obtained from different criteria and evaluate their possible administrative and social consequences for public policy implementation.
- Apply pattern analysis methods to real-world problems in economics, business, politics, and state/municipal administration, and interpret the results for practical decision-making.
- Explain the basic concepts of network analysis (network structure, nodes, edges, centrality indices) and apply them to model decision-making problems in state and municipal administration under deep uncertainty.
- Evaluate the advantages and limitations of network analysis methods for public administration problems, and justify their application compared to traditional decision-making tools under conditions of deep uncertainty.
- Apply network analysis to model interstate economic conflicts in today's multipolar world, identifying key participants, conflict structures, and patterns of economic interdependence using network metrics.
- Apply centrality measures (degree, betweenness, closeness, eigenvector) to assess the influence of participants in interstate economic conflicts, and interpret these measures for foreign economic decision-making under geopolitical uncertainty.
- Explain the core concepts of Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP), including its key stages (signal detection, contingency planning, trigger identification, and adaptive action), and analyze its applicability to various types of public administration problems under deep uncertainty.
Course Contents
- Decision-Making by Public Administration under Risk and Uncertainty – Overview
- Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Using Decision-Making Methods under Risk and Uncertainty to Solve Problems by State and Municipal Administration
- Decision-Making Using Pattern Analysis Methods
- Decision-Making Tools under Deep Uncertainty. Foresight Methods for Managerial Decision-Making in Public Administration under Deep Uncertainty
- Network Analysis under Deep Uncertainty
- Network Analysis for Effective Foreign Economic Decision-Making
- Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP) as a Tool for Managerial Decision-Making in Public Administration
Interim Assessment
- 2026/2027 1st module0.2 * Homework + 0.2 * Test + 0.4 * Exam + 0.2 * Seminar Activity
Bibliography
Recommended Core Bibliography
- 9781000536102 - Fuad Aleskerov; Sergey Shvydun; Natalia Meshcheryakova - New Centrality Measures in Networks : How to Take Into Account the Parameters of the Nodes and Group Influence of Nodes to Nodes - 2021 - CRC Press - https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=3019325 - nlebk - 3019325
- 9781799832485 - Vicente González-Prida, María Carmen Carnero - Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts - 2020 - Mc Millian - https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=2580941 - nlebk - 2580941
- Advances in decision making under risk and uncertainty, , 2008
- Aleskerov, F., & Subochev, A. (2016). Matrix-vector representation of various solution concepts.
- Aleskerov, F., Meshcheryakova, N., & Shvydun, S. (2016). Centrality measures in networks based on nodes attributes, long-range interactions and group influence.
- Aleskerov, F., Meshcheryakova, N., Rezyapova, A., & Shvydun, S. (2018). Network analysis of international migration.
- Centrality measures in networks based on nodes attributes, long-range interactions and group infl..., Aleskerov, F., 2016
- Decision analysis : introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty, Raiffa, H., 1968
- Decision-making under uncertainty, Biswas, T., 1997
- Power Distribution in the Weimar Reichstag in 1919-1933 : препринт, Aleskerov F., Xoller M., 2010
- Science, technology and innovation policy for the future : potentials and limits of foresight studies, , 2013
- The handbook of technology foresight : concepts and practice, , 2008
- Абанкина, И. В., Алескеров, Ф. Т., Белоусова, В. Ю., Зиньковский, К. В., & Петрущенко, В. В. (2013). Evaluating Performance of Universities Using Data Envelopment Analysis ; Оценка результативности университетов с помощью оболочечного анализа данных. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.C005A814
Recommended Additional Bibliography
- Amos Tversky, & Daniel Kahneman. (1992). Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.5929DF64
- Bjordal, J., Storelvmo, T., & Smith Jr, A. A. (2021). Quantifying uncertainty about global and regional economic impacts of climate change.
- Is it so bad that we cannot recognize black swans? = Так ли уж плохо, что мы не умеем распознавать черных лебедей?, препринт WP7/2010/03, Гос. ун-т - Высшая школа экономики, 40 с., Aleskerov, F., Egorova, L., 2010
- Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight : The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. New York: Routledge. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=234423
- Meissner, D., Gokhberg, L. M., & Sokolov, A. (2013). Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future : Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=586015
- Networks : an introduction, Newman, M. E. J., 2013
- Polarization and optimal allocation of migrants. Препринт WP7/2017/01, Aleskerov, F., 2017
- Power and preferences: an experimental approach : препринт, Алескеров Ф.Т., Белянин А., 2010
- Алескеров, Ф. Т. Некоторые математические модели и методы в политических науках : монография / Ф. Т. Алескеров, В. И. Вольский. — Москва : Издательство Юрайт, 2024. — 265 с. — (Высшее образование). — ISBN 978-5-534-18456-3. — Текст : электронный // Образовательная платформа Юрайт [сайт]. — URL: https://urait.ru/bcode/535062 (дата обращения: 02.07.2026).
- Влияние и структурная устойчивость в Российском парламенте (1905 - 1917 и 1993 - 2005 гг.), Алескеров, Ф. Т., 2007
- Выборы. Голосование. Партии, Алескеров, Ф. Т., 1995
- Многокритериальные пороговые алгоритмы принятия решений : препринт, Алескеров Ф.Т., Чистяков В.В., 2010
- Мультиагентная модель динамики влияния стран - участниц МВФ, Алескеров Ф.Т., Калягин В.А., 2007
- Некоторые математические модели и методы в политических науках : монография, Алескеров, Ф. Т., 2024