2025/2026
Глобальная экономическая политика: текущие риски и неопределённость
Статус:
Дисциплина общефакультетского пула
Кто читает:
Департамент теоретической экономики
Где читается:
Факультет экономических наук
Когда читается:
3 модуль
Охват аудитории:
для всех кампусов НИУ ВШЭ
Преподаватели:
Гилман Мартин Грант
Язык:
английский
Кредиты:
3
Контактные часы:
14
Course Syllabus
Abstract
This mini-course will analyze whether the major OECD countries, advised by the IMF and the BIS, are stumbling into a period of financial dislocation, or worse. The unwillingness and/or inability of the major economic powers to confront the imbalances that led to the financial crisis of 2007-8 may have in fact made such a scenario more likely, especially in the wake of the debt build-up since at least the time of the pandemic of 2021/2. Numerous indicators show that macro imbalances are at a tipping point. For instance, public debt in the US risks going parabolic at well over 100% of GDP, with interest costs now higher than defense spending. The economic tail risks of inflation and/or recession, are now compounded by unknowable policy uncertainty in the form of the arrival of Mr. Trump to the US presidency one year ago.
Learning Objectives
- to develop your own assessment of whether the global economy is experiencing a bubble of historic proportions or is striving to make sense of a changing balance of economic power in a fast-changing world. It may come as some relief to know that nobody seems to know the answer to these questions, even those responsible for economic policy in major countries
- to appreciate how these developments may be relevant to your own career and future prospects
Expected Learning Outcomes
- — develop analytical skills in applying theory to empirical aspects of the main economic issues in the current international economy
- — recognition that there may be no correct answers on an a priori basis to many of the critical questions about growth, employment and inflation
Interim Assessment
- 2025/2026 3rd module0.1 * Attendance + 0.6 * Final exam + 0.15 * Midterm + 0.15 * Participation
